Detroit Tigers
Rotation: Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis, Kenny Rogers, Nate Robertson
Two years ago the Tigers' pitching carried them to the World Series. Last year, the pitching, largely the same rotation, slumped noticeably. Rogers isn't getting any younger but you can do worse at the back of the rotation, Robertson is fine in the five spot also. The Tigers need Willis and Bonderman, who might have major arm problems, to rebound. It would also be nice if Verlander went from very good to excellent, he has Cy Young ability if he can put it all together. If that happens, this team will be unstoppable. If it doesn't, they'll still be very, very good.
Line-up: C-Ivan Rodriguez
1B-Carlos Guillen
2B-Placido Polanco
SS-Edgar Renteria
3B-Miguel Cabrera
LF-Jacque Jones/Marcus Thames
CF-Curtis Granderson
RF-Magglio Ordonez
DH-Gary Sheffield
The Tigers added an MVP candidate, although there defense will suffer for it. They have talent at every position, except at catcher, where Ivan Rodriguez is starting to show his age. He's a no doubt hall of famer, but he's no longer much of a hitter. This line-up will score runs, even with Granderson starting the year on the DL. Brandon Inge will serve as a capable replacement until he gets healthy.
Bullpen: This is Detroit's weakness. Todd Jones reprises his role as one of the weaker closers. Fernando Rodney, the top set-up man is hurt, and no one else is particularly good. Maybe someone will emerge, or maybe they can change Inge into a serviceable reliever.
Predicted Record: 93-69
Cleveland Indians
Rotation: C.C. Sabathia, Fausto Carmona, Jake Westbrook, Paul Byrd, Cliff Lee
If Carmona stays healthy, this rotation matches up with anyone. He is an injury risk because of the increase in innings last year. The back of the rotation is solid. Westbrook and Byrd will keep you in most games.
Line-up: C-Victor Martinez
1B-Ryan Garko
2B-Asdrubal Cabrera
SS-Jhonny Peralta
3B-Casey Blake
LF-David Dellucci/Jason Michaels
CF-Grady Sizemore
RF-Franklin Gutierrez
DH-Travis Hafner
This line-up has some weak points. Third base and left field are average at best. When you have Martinez Sizemore and Hafner (assuming he rebounds) you can afford some holes. Cabrera's a rookie, but he should be capable with the bat.
Bullpen: Joe Borowski returns as closer despite being worse than his main set-up man Rafael Betancourt. Betancourt might be the best short reliever in the league. The Indians also have Japanese import Masahide Kobayashi, and they hope he can replicate the success of some of his countrymen who have preceded him.
Predicted Record: 90-73
Chicago White Sox
Rotation: Javier Vazquez, Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, Jose Contreras, John Danks
This rotation is average. Vazquez is good, but he's not a real ace. Buerhle is fine in the two hole. Floyd and Danks are young and Contreras is old, so they all have question marks. Floyd and Danks have talent, so this rotation could be good if the White Sox get lucky.
Line-up: C-A.J. Pierzynski
1B-Paul Konerko
2B-Juan Uribe
SS-Orlando Cabrera
3B-Joe Crede
LF-Carlos Quentin
CF-Nick Swisher
RF-Jermaine Dye
DH-Jim Thome
The White Sox have a big question in centerfield. Jerry Owens was the leading candidate to start, pushing Swisher to left. Owens will start the season on the DL though, with a torn muscle. Swisher has played some center, but he'll be really stretched. Other options are former prospect Brian Anderson and Alexei Ramirez. The best offensive alignment is Swisher, but the defensive hit is substantial. The other issue is at third base where Crede might be traded to clear the way for prospect Josh Fields. Another question is age. Konerko, Dye and Thome are all probably due to decline. The additions of Swisher and Cabrera will help off set that.
Bullpen: Bobby Jenks gets the job done as closer. Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink will be capable as set-up men. The bullpen isn't spectacular but it will get the job done.
Predicted Record: 78-84
Minnesota Twins
Rotation: Francisco Liriano, Livan Hernandez, Boof Bonser, Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker
Liriano has ace talent. He will probably need some time to finish his recovery from Tommy John Surgery. He could be huge in the second half, or he could blow out his arm again. Hernandez was brought in to add some stability to a young rotation, he's not very good anymore, but he'll throw his innings. The rest of the rotation is young players whose time has come. They all project to be mid-rotation guys, the Twins hope they reach that potential sooner rather than later.
Line-up: C-Joe Mauer
1B-Justin Morneau
2B-Brendan Harris
SS-Adam Everett
3B-Mike Lamb
LF-Delmon Young
CF-Carlos Gomez
RF-Michael Cuddyer
DH-Jason Kubel
The Twins added some talent in the outfield this offseason. Delmon Young has potential to be great, although he's more likely to be pretty good. Gomez's ceiling is lower as a hitter, but he can play centerfield. Cuddyer is decent and Kubel might break out as he gets further from his broken leg. Even if he does, his ceiling is above average. The infield, excluding Morneau, does not hit well. Everett is a glove man, Harris is mediocre, and Lamb is a journeyman. Nick Punto is lurking at second, which would make the offense even worse.
Bullpen: The Twins recently extended Joe Nathan as closer. He's one of the better ones, but he's eating up a lot of payroll right now. They have a lot of quality arms ahead of Nathan. Pat Neshek is a fun side-armer, Matt Guerrier and Juan Rincon should provide quality innings.
Kansas City Royals
Rotation: Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, Zack Greinke, John Bale, Brett Tomko
Meche and Bannister are quality mid-rotation arms, unfortunately they're at the front of the rotation. Greinke has returned from his problems and he could move to the front of the rotation if he remains healthy.
Line-up: C-John Buck
1B-Ross Gload
2B-Mark Grudzielanek
SS-Tony Pena
3B-Alex Gordon
LF-Mark Teahen
CF-David DeJesus
RF-Jose Guillen
DH-Billy Butler
The Royals hope that Butler and Gordon can break out this year. Butler is limited to DH, but he has a lot of upside with the bat. Gordon is the franchise's best hope to resurrect itself, he could be a difference maker in a few years. They have some other young building blocks with Teahen and DeJesus. They're not stars but they'll produce some decent numbers.
Bullpen: Joakim Soria remains the closer. He's a decent reliever. There's not really much to get excited about here.
Predicted Record: 70-92
Thursday, March 27, 2008
NL Central Preview
Milwaukee Brewers
Rotation: Ben Sheets, Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, Carlos Villanueva, Manny Parra
The rotation took a hit when Yovanni Gallardo hurt his knee. He should be back in mid to late April and will add a quality arm. This rotation is not a strong point. Between the Gallardo injury, Sheets' fragility and the youth at the back of the rotation they have a lot of question marks.
Line-up: C-Jason Kendall
1B-Prince Fielder
2B-Rickie Weeks
SS-J.J. Hardy
3B-Bill Hall
LF-Ryan Braun
CF-Mike Cameron
RF-Corey Hart
The Brewers season depends on their young talent consolidating gains from last year and continuing to make even more progress. If Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hardy and Hart can hold their level from last year and Hall can rebound the line-up could be sick. The major story here was the reshuffling of the defense. Ryan Braun was a butcher at 3B last year and Hall struggled in the outfield. The defense should improve because of these moves, although it still isn't very good.
Bullpen: The Brewers brought in Eric Gagne to close. They have some decent arms behind him. Derrick Turnbow and David Riske are capable set-up men, although you don't when to count on them if Gagne gets hurt.
Predicted Record: 91-71
Chicago Cubs
Rotation: Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, Rich Hill, Jason Marquis
I am not impressed by this rotation. Zambrano seems to be on the down side of his career. Lilly had a good year last year but is really just a solid pitcher. Dempster is a reliever being pushed to start. Hill is decent but has no real upside, and Marquis just isn't very good.
Line-up: C-Geovany Soto
1B-Derrek Lee
2B-Mark DeRosa
SS-Ryan Theriot
3B-Aramis Ramirez
LF-Alfonso Soriano
CF-Felix Pie
RF-Kosuke Fukodome
Pie is a prospect who appears to be getting his shot. If he struggles, the Cubs could look for another option. Soto raked in the minors last year, he could really contribute. Ramirez and Soriano will anchor the line-up and Fukodome and Lee should also contribute with their bats. Overall, the line-up is a plus and could be very good if Pie and Soto come through.
Bullpen: The big question in Spring Training was who would be anointed closer. Kerry Wood beat out Carlos Marmol and Bob Howry. All three are plus relievers, so even if Wood gets hurt, the Cubs have options.
Predicted Record: 88-74
Cinncinati Reds
Rotation: Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Josh Fogg
Possibly the best rotation in the division. Harang is very good and Arroyo fits in nicely in the two slot. The back of the rotation is young. Cueto is a hot-shot prospect and Volquez was a couple of years ago. Lots of upside, lots of risk. Fogg is your typical veteran who the Reds hope to get 150 decent innings out of. Matt Belisle and Homer Bailey are waiting for someone to falter.
Line-up: C-Dave Ross
1B-Joey Votto
2B-Brandon Phillips
SS-Jeff Keppinger
3B-Edwin Encarnacion
LF-Adam Dunn
CF-Corey Patterson
RF-Ken Griffey Jr.
This line-up has a lot of question marks in it. Will Griffey stay healthy? Will the Reds get tired of Dunn's strikeouts and trade him? Is Brandon Phillips for real? Can Encarnacion live up to his potential? Is Votto ready? When will Jay Bruce supplant Patterson in center? Enough of those should turn into yeses to make this line-up a plus.
Bullpen: The Reds brought in Francisco Cordero to solve their bullpen problems. He'll be solid, but this group still isn't very deep. If David Weathers or Jared Burton emerges as a quality set-up man they might have something.
Predicted Record: 83-79
Houston Astros
Rotation: Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Backe, Woody Williams, Shawn Chacon
Oswalt is great. He's one of my favorite players and should be a top ten starter in the NL. Other than that, there is nothing here to like.
Line-up:C-J.R. Towles
1B-Lance Berkman
2B-Mark Loretta
SS-Miguel Tejada
3B-Ty Wigginton
LF-Carlos Lee
CF-Michael Bourn
RF-Hunter Pence
Berkman is a great hitter, and Tejada should still have enough left to be a quality second option. The defense will suffer with loss of Adam Everett at shortstop though. His pitchers are going to miss him. The outfield corners will produce as well. Lee and Pence can hit. The rest of line-up is not exciting. Towles should be an upgrade at catcher. Overall, the line-up is good, but not good enough to carry a team.
Bullpen: The Astros imported Jose Valverde to close. If he gets hurt, they don't have any legitimate options behind him.
Predicted Record: 71-91
St. Louis Cardinals
Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Braden Looper, Kyle Lohse, Todd Wellemeyer, Brad Thompson
The story here is who isn't pitching. Mark Mulder and Chris Carpenter will both be on the DL for much of the season. Without them, the rotation has no ace. The top three are all solid pitchers, but that's a pretty weak foundation.
Line-up: C-Yadier Molina
1B-Albert Pujols
2B-Adam Kennedy
SS-Cesar Izturis
3B-Troy Glaus
LF-Chris Duncan
CF-Rick Ankiel
RF-Skip Schumaker/Ryan Ludwick
The Cardinals could lose 100 games if Pujols gives in to his elbow injury. It's almost a given that he will need surgery, but he's hoping to make it till the end of the season. If the doesn't, the line-up is dependent on a Glaus resurgence, otherwise, they'll be weak.
Bullpen: Jason Isringhausen is the closer. There's nothing special here, but they're not terrible either.
Predicted Record: 71-91
Pittsburgh Pirates
Rotation: Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny, Paul Maholm, Matt Morris, Zach Duke
The rotation has potential, and it will need to live up to it if the Pirates hope to contend. If it doesn't, the Pirates will need to develop a plan B fast.
Line-up: C-Ronny Paulino
1B-Adam LaRoche
2B-Freddy Sanchez
SS-Jack Wilson
3B-Jose Bautista
LF-Jason Bay
CF-Nate McLouth
RF-Nyjer Morgan
This line-up has no one who is an elite hitter. LaRoche is pretty good, and Bay might rebound to that level also. These are the type of players you pick up around the edges if you are a contender, not who you build a team around. If the Pirates are lucky, some contenders will agree with me, and the Pirates can add some prospects mid-season.
Bullpen: Matt Capps will get what few saves the Pirates generate. The set-up men are okay, although they won't have many games to set-up.
Predicted Record: 70-92
Rotation: Ben Sheets, Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, Carlos Villanueva, Manny Parra
The rotation took a hit when Yovanni Gallardo hurt his knee. He should be back in mid to late April and will add a quality arm. This rotation is not a strong point. Between the Gallardo injury, Sheets' fragility and the youth at the back of the rotation they have a lot of question marks.
Line-up: C-Jason Kendall
1B-Prince Fielder
2B-Rickie Weeks
SS-J.J. Hardy
3B-Bill Hall
LF-Ryan Braun
CF-Mike Cameron
RF-Corey Hart
The Brewers season depends on their young talent consolidating gains from last year and continuing to make even more progress. If Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hardy and Hart can hold their level from last year and Hall can rebound the line-up could be sick. The major story here was the reshuffling of the defense. Ryan Braun was a butcher at 3B last year and Hall struggled in the outfield. The defense should improve because of these moves, although it still isn't very good.
Bullpen: The Brewers brought in Eric Gagne to close. They have some decent arms behind him. Derrick Turnbow and David Riske are capable set-up men, although you don't when to count on them if Gagne gets hurt.
Predicted Record: 91-71
Chicago Cubs
Rotation: Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, Rich Hill, Jason Marquis
I am not impressed by this rotation. Zambrano seems to be on the down side of his career. Lilly had a good year last year but is really just a solid pitcher. Dempster is a reliever being pushed to start. Hill is decent but has no real upside, and Marquis just isn't very good.
Line-up: C-Geovany Soto
1B-Derrek Lee
2B-Mark DeRosa
SS-Ryan Theriot
3B-Aramis Ramirez
LF-Alfonso Soriano
CF-Felix Pie
RF-Kosuke Fukodome
Pie is a prospect who appears to be getting his shot. If he struggles, the Cubs could look for another option. Soto raked in the minors last year, he could really contribute. Ramirez and Soriano will anchor the line-up and Fukodome and Lee should also contribute with their bats. Overall, the line-up is a plus and could be very good if Pie and Soto come through.
Bullpen: The big question in Spring Training was who would be anointed closer. Kerry Wood beat out Carlos Marmol and Bob Howry. All three are plus relievers, so even if Wood gets hurt, the Cubs have options.
Predicted Record: 88-74
Cinncinati Reds
Rotation: Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Josh Fogg
Possibly the best rotation in the division. Harang is very good and Arroyo fits in nicely in the two slot. The back of the rotation is young. Cueto is a hot-shot prospect and Volquez was a couple of years ago. Lots of upside, lots of risk. Fogg is your typical veteran who the Reds hope to get 150 decent innings out of. Matt Belisle and Homer Bailey are waiting for someone to falter.
Line-up: C-Dave Ross
1B-Joey Votto
2B-Brandon Phillips
SS-Jeff Keppinger
3B-Edwin Encarnacion
LF-Adam Dunn
CF-Corey Patterson
RF-Ken Griffey Jr.
This line-up has a lot of question marks in it. Will Griffey stay healthy? Will the Reds get tired of Dunn's strikeouts and trade him? Is Brandon Phillips for real? Can Encarnacion live up to his potential? Is Votto ready? When will Jay Bruce supplant Patterson in center? Enough of those should turn into yeses to make this line-up a plus.
Bullpen: The Reds brought in Francisco Cordero to solve their bullpen problems. He'll be solid, but this group still isn't very deep. If David Weathers or Jared Burton emerges as a quality set-up man they might have something.
Predicted Record: 83-79
Houston Astros
Rotation: Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Backe, Woody Williams, Shawn Chacon
Oswalt is great. He's one of my favorite players and should be a top ten starter in the NL. Other than that, there is nothing here to like.
Line-up:C-J.R. Towles
1B-Lance Berkman
2B-Mark Loretta
SS-Miguel Tejada
3B-Ty Wigginton
LF-Carlos Lee
CF-Michael Bourn
RF-Hunter Pence
Berkman is a great hitter, and Tejada should still have enough left to be a quality second option. The defense will suffer with loss of Adam Everett at shortstop though. His pitchers are going to miss him. The outfield corners will produce as well. Lee and Pence can hit. The rest of line-up is not exciting. Towles should be an upgrade at catcher. Overall, the line-up is good, but not good enough to carry a team.
Bullpen: The Astros imported Jose Valverde to close. If he gets hurt, they don't have any legitimate options behind him.
Predicted Record: 71-91
St. Louis Cardinals
Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Braden Looper, Kyle Lohse, Todd Wellemeyer, Brad Thompson
The story here is who isn't pitching. Mark Mulder and Chris Carpenter will both be on the DL for much of the season. Without them, the rotation has no ace. The top three are all solid pitchers, but that's a pretty weak foundation.
Line-up: C-Yadier Molina
1B-Albert Pujols
2B-Adam Kennedy
SS-Cesar Izturis
3B-Troy Glaus
LF-Chris Duncan
CF-Rick Ankiel
RF-Skip Schumaker/Ryan Ludwick
The Cardinals could lose 100 games if Pujols gives in to his elbow injury. It's almost a given that he will need surgery, but he's hoping to make it till the end of the season. If the doesn't, the line-up is dependent on a Glaus resurgence, otherwise, they'll be weak.
Bullpen: Jason Isringhausen is the closer. There's nothing special here, but they're not terrible either.
Predicted Record: 71-91
Pittsburgh Pirates
Rotation: Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny, Paul Maholm, Matt Morris, Zach Duke
The rotation has potential, and it will need to live up to it if the Pirates hope to contend. If it doesn't, the Pirates will need to develop a plan B fast.
Line-up: C-Ronny Paulino
1B-Adam LaRoche
2B-Freddy Sanchez
SS-Jack Wilson
3B-Jose Bautista
LF-Jason Bay
CF-Nate McLouth
RF-Nyjer Morgan
This line-up has no one who is an elite hitter. LaRoche is pretty good, and Bay might rebound to that level also. These are the type of players you pick up around the edges if you are a contender, not who you build a team around. If the Pirates are lucky, some contenders will agree with me, and the Pirates can add some prospects mid-season.
Bullpen: Matt Capps will get what few saves the Pirates generate. The set-up men are okay, although they won't have many games to set-up.
Predicted Record: 70-92
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
AL West Preview
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Rotation: Jon Garland, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, Dustin Mosely/Nick Adenhart
At the start of spring training, Saunders and Santana were competing for the fifth spot in the rotation. They both win because of the injuries to John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar. Lackey and Escobar will be out at least a month, leaving the back of the rotation in a state of flux. Adenhart is the hot prospect, but he might not be ready. This should have been a strength, it's moved a lot closer to average. The front is still solid, and the back could be good.
Line-up: C-Mike Napoli
1B-Casey Kotchman
2B-Howie Kendrick
SS-Erick Aybar
3B-Chone Figgins
LF-Gary Matthews
CF-Torii Hunter
RF-Vladimir Guerrero
DH-Garrett Anderson
The Angels have a lot of money locked up in their outfield, and they should get good production out of it. Guerrero's back is an issue, but Juan Rivera should provide decent production if he's called upon. The infield is young. They could take a big step forward, but they'll probably be pretty close to average. Overall, the line-up is a plus, but not a huge one.
Bullpen: Francisco Rodriguez is as good as any closer in the game, and Justin Speier is a quality arm ahead of him. Scot Shields will start the season on the DL leaving the rest of the bullpen in flux.
Predicted Record: 85-77
Seattle Mariners
Rotation: Eric Bedard, Felix Hernandez, Miguel Batista, Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Silva
The Mariners added Bedard and Silva over the offseason. Bedard gives them a legitimate ace to go with Hernandez's ace potential. If Hernandez puts it together, the rotation could be scary. The back of the rotation is solid. Batista, Washburn and Silva won't blow anyone away, but they're good enough.
Line-up: C-Kenji Johjima
1B-Richie Sexson
2B-Jose Lopez
SS-Yuniesky Betancourt
3B-Adrian Beltre
LF-Raul Ibanez
CF-Ichiro Suzuki
RF-Brad Wilkerson
DH-Jose Vidro
If Sexson and Wilkerson rebound it would help hide some of the weaker hitters. Vidro and Betancourt don't add much and while Beltre is a good defender he is not an elite hitter. Overall, the line-up should be decent but could be worse if they fight injuries or age.
Bullpen: J.J. Putz is a great closer, the rest of the bullpen is mediocre.
Predicted Record: 82-80
Oakland Athletics
Rotation: Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Justin Duchsherer, Dana Eveland, Chad Gaudin
The Athletics need Harden to stay healthy to become legitimate contenders. Even without him, they could win a division that's looking weak after the Angels pitching injuries. Blanton and Duchsherer are solid. Eveland and Gaudin could be decent with if they get some breaks.
Line-up: C-Kurt Suzuki
1B-Daric Barton
2B-Mark Ellis
SS-Bobby Crosby
3B-Jack Hannahan
LF-Emil Brown
CF-Ryan Sweeney
RF-Travis Buck
DH-Jack Cust
The A's are working in some of their young, and not so young talent. Barton should be good but will take some time to get there. It's looking more and more like Eric Chavez is done being a serious contributor. The A's need someone to step up, but it's probably going not going to happen next year.
Bullpen: Huston Street is great, and the set-up men are decent. One question is how long Street will remain in Oakland. If the A's are out of it midway, Street, Crosby, Ellis, Chavez and Blanton could all have new employers.
Predicted Record: 80-82
Texas Rangers
Rotation: Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Jason Jennings, Kason Gabbard, Brandon McCarthy
Luis Mendoza will take McCarthy's spot for at least a few turns. The rotation is a problem. They fight their park tooth and nail, but even taking that into account, their just isn't much to like here.
Line-up: C-Gerald Laird
1B-Ben Broussard
2B-Ian Kinsler
SS-Michael Young
3B-Hank Blalock
LF-Marlon Byrd
CF-Josh Hamilton
RF-Nelson Cruz
DH-Milton Bradley
Saltalamachia might open the season in the minors, or might be the back-up catcher/DH/first baseman. He can hit, but the Rangers aren't happy with his defense behind the plate. The line-up could be an asset, especially if Blalock and Hamilton can continue to resurge and Saltalamachia is ready.
Bullpen: The Rangers have a lot of decent relievers but no really good ones. Kazuo Fukumori is a new Japanese import. The Rangers hope he can be the next Takashi Saito. If he does, and the hitting reaches it's potential, they could sneak into a division lead, but that's a lot of ifs.
Predicted Record: 77-85
Rotation: Jon Garland, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, Dustin Mosely/Nick Adenhart
At the start of spring training, Saunders and Santana were competing for the fifth spot in the rotation. They both win because of the injuries to John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar. Lackey and Escobar will be out at least a month, leaving the back of the rotation in a state of flux. Adenhart is the hot prospect, but he might not be ready. This should have been a strength, it's moved a lot closer to average. The front is still solid, and the back could be good.
Line-up: C-Mike Napoli
1B-Casey Kotchman
2B-Howie Kendrick
SS-Erick Aybar
3B-Chone Figgins
LF-Gary Matthews
CF-Torii Hunter
RF-Vladimir Guerrero
DH-Garrett Anderson
The Angels have a lot of money locked up in their outfield, and they should get good production out of it. Guerrero's back is an issue, but Juan Rivera should provide decent production if he's called upon. The infield is young. They could take a big step forward, but they'll probably be pretty close to average. Overall, the line-up is a plus, but not a huge one.
Bullpen: Francisco Rodriguez is as good as any closer in the game, and Justin Speier is a quality arm ahead of him. Scot Shields will start the season on the DL leaving the rest of the bullpen in flux.
Predicted Record: 85-77
Seattle Mariners
Rotation: Eric Bedard, Felix Hernandez, Miguel Batista, Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Silva
The Mariners added Bedard and Silva over the offseason. Bedard gives them a legitimate ace to go with Hernandez's ace potential. If Hernandez puts it together, the rotation could be scary. The back of the rotation is solid. Batista, Washburn and Silva won't blow anyone away, but they're good enough.
Line-up: C-Kenji Johjima
1B-Richie Sexson
2B-Jose Lopez
SS-Yuniesky Betancourt
3B-Adrian Beltre
LF-Raul Ibanez
CF-Ichiro Suzuki
RF-Brad Wilkerson
DH-Jose Vidro
If Sexson and Wilkerson rebound it would help hide some of the weaker hitters. Vidro and Betancourt don't add much and while Beltre is a good defender he is not an elite hitter. Overall, the line-up should be decent but could be worse if they fight injuries or age.
Bullpen: J.J. Putz is a great closer, the rest of the bullpen is mediocre.
Predicted Record: 82-80
Oakland Athletics
Rotation: Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Justin Duchsherer, Dana Eveland, Chad Gaudin
The Athletics need Harden to stay healthy to become legitimate contenders. Even without him, they could win a division that's looking weak after the Angels pitching injuries. Blanton and Duchsherer are solid. Eveland and Gaudin could be decent with if they get some breaks.
Line-up: C-Kurt Suzuki
1B-Daric Barton
2B-Mark Ellis
SS-Bobby Crosby
3B-Jack Hannahan
LF-Emil Brown
CF-Ryan Sweeney
RF-Travis Buck
DH-Jack Cust
The A's are working in some of their young, and not so young talent. Barton should be good but will take some time to get there. It's looking more and more like Eric Chavez is done being a serious contributor. The A's need someone to step up, but it's probably going not going to happen next year.
Bullpen: Huston Street is great, and the set-up men are decent. One question is how long Street will remain in Oakland. If the A's are out of it midway, Street, Crosby, Ellis, Chavez and Blanton could all have new employers.
Predicted Record: 80-82
Texas Rangers
Rotation: Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Jason Jennings, Kason Gabbard, Brandon McCarthy
Luis Mendoza will take McCarthy's spot for at least a few turns. The rotation is a problem. They fight their park tooth and nail, but even taking that into account, their just isn't much to like here.
Line-up: C-Gerald Laird
1B-Ben Broussard
2B-Ian Kinsler
SS-Michael Young
3B-Hank Blalock
LF-Marlon Byrd
CF-Josh Hamilton
RF-Nelson Cruz
DH-Milton Bradley
Saltalamachia might open the season in the minors, or might be the back-up catcher/DH/first baseman. He can hit, but the Rangers aren't happy with his defense behind the plate. The line-up could be an asset, especially if Blalock and Hamilton can continue to resurge and Saltalamachia is ready.
Bullpen: The Rangers have a lot of decent relievers but no really good ones. Kazuo Fukumori is a new Japanese import. The Rangers hope he can be the next Takashi Saito. If he does, and the hitting reaches it's potential, they could sneak into a division lead, but that's a lot of ifs.
Predicted Record: 77-85
Monday, March 24, 2008
NL West Preview
I have a very sophisticated projection system I use to predict the standings each year. It's called guessing.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Rotation: Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Randy Johnson, Doug Davis, Micah Owings
The biggest upgrade for Arizona this year was replacing Livan Hernandez with Dan Haren. With that addition, the Diamondbacks rotation can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the NL. Assuming Johnson does not go a full season, they have Edgar Gonzalez ready to throw some passable innings.
Line-up: C-Chris Snyder
1B-Conor Jackson
2B-Orlando Hudson
SS-Stephen Drew
3B-Mark Reynolds
LF-Eric Byrnes
CF-Chris Young
RF-Justin Upton
The Diamondbacks have put together a line-up with a lot of upside. They could be good if the young players like Jackson, Drew, Young and Upton put together good seasons. A more likely scenario is for them to be closer to average.
Bullpen: The Diamondbacks made some changes to their bullpen this offseason. They have installed Brandon Lyon at closer and have a good set-up corp in Tony Pena and Chad Qualls. If this group stays healthy, they'll be an asset.
Predicted Record: 88-74
Los Angeles Dodgers
Rotation: Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, Hideki Kuroda, Esteban Loaiza
The Dodgers also have Jason Schmidt who hopes to be healthy and contribute. I'm not betting on it. This rotation does not have the knock-out punch of Arizona, but it has few holes. The top four should be average or better this year, and Loaiza and Schmidt give them a solid chance to get decent production from the five spot.
Line-up: C-Russell Martin
1B-James Loney
2B-Jeff Kent
SS-Rafael Furcal
3B-Nomar Garciaparra/Andy LaRoche
LF-Juan Pierre/Matt Kemp
CF-Andruw Jones
RF-Matt Kemp/Andre Ethier
The Dodgers are battling injury problems this spring. Garciaparra and LaRoche are both hurt, leaving third base to, in all likelyhood, Tony Abreu. Kent also might miss some time at second, with Delwyn Young as a possible replacement. Neither of these will help the Dodgers offense. Martin will produce, and they will probably get bounce back performances from Jones and Furcal (I don't think he'll be great, but he'll bounce back some). If the youngsters on the corners produce, this line-up could be pretty good.
Bullpen: The big question here is if Takashi Saito can repeat his dominant performance as closer. He's old and the league could adjust to him. I don't know if I'm a believer. They have some pretty good set-up men in Jonathan Broxton and Scott Proctor.
Predicted Record: 87-75
Colorado Rockies
Rotation: Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez, Franklin Morales, Kip Wells
The rotation is led by Jeff Francis who can pitch with the best of them. Cook is a solid number two. The question marks are at the end of the rotation. Jimenez is young, and the Rockies hope he can build off of his debut. The Rockies are hoping to get solid production from the five spot, with Josh Towers ready to step in if Wells falters.
Line-up: C-Yorvit Torrealba
1B-Todd Helton
2B-Jayson Nix
SS-Troy Tulowitzki
3B-Garrett Atkins
LF-Matt Holliday
CF-Willy Taveras
RF-Brad Hawpe
The Rockies return most of the line-up from their world series run. Jayson Nix seems to be front runner for the second base job. He's also the biggest hole in the line-up. They'll get above average or better production at SS and on the corners. They have some nice hitters and some holes. Overall they should clock in as an above average line-up.
Bullpen: The Rockies have Matt Corpas as closer, and several generally undistinguished set-up men.
Predicted Record: 87-75
San Diego Padres
Rotation: Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Greg Maddux, Randy Wolf, Justin Germano
Jake Peavy is co-front runner for the Cy Young in my mind, along with that guy in New York. Chris Young and Greg Maddux (despite his age) should be very respectable behind him. The back of the rotation has the question marks. The Padres are hoping that Mark Prior will get healthy mid-season and shore things up. Wolf could flame out or provide decent production, I think he'll struggle.
Line-up: C-Michael Barrett
1B-Adrian Gonzalez
2B-Tadahito Iguchi
SS-Khalil Greene
3B-Kevin Kouzmanoff
LF-Jody Gerut
CF-Jim Edmonds
RF-Brian Giles
Edmonds will miss the start of the season, leaving centerfield to Scott Hairston. Chase Headley is lurking at AAA if any of the outfielders struggle. Another option would be to trade Headley or Kouzmanoff for an outfielder. This line-up has no stars, but Greene and Gonzalez are both valuable players. There are also a lot of holes. Giles isn't very good anymore, ditto for Edmonds. Hairston, Gerut and Iguchi are journeymen.
Bullpen: San Diego has a knack for finding quality arms to back Trevor Hoffmann. The main suspects this year are Cla Meredith and Heath Bell. While Hoffmann isn't getting any younger he should still produce, and the bullpen should remain a strength.
Predicted Record: 80-82
San Francisco Giants
Rotation: Barry Zito, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Kevin Correia, Jonathan Sanchez
Noah Lowry should return in a few weeks and displace Sanchez. This rotation is the bright spot in San Francisco. Zito is still a good pitcher. Cain and Lincecum are the supposed foundation of the future. The problem with building on young pitchers is the injury rate. I think the odds of both of them living up to their potential are slim.
Line-up: C-Bengie Molina
1B-Dan Ortmeier
2B-Ray Durham
SS-Omar Vizquel
3B-Rich Aurilia
LF-Dave Roberts
CF-Aaron Rowand
RF-Randy Winn
Rowand will produce, the rest of the line-up won't.
Bullpen: The bullpen won't contribute much either.
Predicted Record: 63-99
Anyone could win this division save the Giants. It would take some luck for San Diego to win because of the holes in their line-up. Arizona, Colorado and Los Angeles are all legitimate though. I'm going with the Diamondbacks, but it's really a crap shoot here.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Rotation: Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Randy Johnson, Doug Davis, Micah Owings
The biggest upgrade for Arizona this year was replacing Livan Hernandez with Dan Haren. With that addition, the Diamondbacks rotation can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the NL. Assuming Johnson does not go a full season, they have Edgar Gonzalez ready to throw some passable innings.
Line-up: C-Chris Snyder
1B-Conor Jackson
2B-Orlando Hudson
SS-Stephen Drew
3B-Mark Reynolds
LF-Eric Byrnes
CF-Chris Young
RF-Justin Upton
The Diamondbacks have put together a line-up with a lot of upside. They could be good if the young players like Jackson, Drew, Young and Upton put together good seasons. A more likely scenario is for them to be closer to average.
Bullpen: The Diamondbacks made some changes to their bullpen this offseason. They have installed Brandon Lyon at closer and have a good set-up corp in Tony Pena and Chad Qualls. If this group stays healthy, they'll be an asset.
Predicted Record: 88-74
Los Angeles Dodgers
Rotation: Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, Hideki Kuroda, Esteban Loaiza
The Dodgers also have Jason Schmidt who hopes to be healthy and contribute. I'm not betting on it. This rotation does not have the knock-out punch of Arizona, but it has few holes. The top four should be average or better this year, and Loaiza and Schmidt give them a solid chance to get decent production from the five spot.
Line-up: C-Russell Martin
1B-James Loney
2B-Jeff Kent
SS-Rafael Furcal
3B-Nomar Garciaparra/Andy LaRoche
LF-Juan Pierre/Matt Kemp
CF-Andruw Jones
RF-Matt Kemp/Andre Ethier
The Dodgers are battling injury problems this spring. Garciaparra and LaRoche are both hurt, leaving third base to, in all likelyhood, Tony Abreu. Kent also might miss some time at second, with Delwyn Young as a possible replacement. Neither of these will help the Dodgers offense. Martin will produce, and they will probably get bounce back performances from Jones and Furcal (I don't think he'll be great, but he'll bounce back some). If the youngsters on the corners produce, this line-up could be pretty good.
Bullpen: The big question here is if Takashi Saito can repeat his dominant performance as closer. He's old and the league could adjust to him. I don't know if I'm a believer. They have some pretty good set-up men in Jonathan Broxton and Scott Proctor.
Predicted Record: 87-75
Colorado Rockies
Rotation: Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez, Franklin Morales, Kip Wells
The rotation is led by Jeff Francis who can pitch with the best of them. Cook is a solid number two. The question marks are at the end of the rotation. Jimenez is young, and the Rockies hope he can build off of his debut. The Rockies are hoping to get solid production from the five spot, with Josh Towers ready to step in if Wells falters.
Line-up: C-Yorvit Torrealba
1B-Todd Helton
2B-Jayson Nix
SS-Troy Tulowitzki
3B-Garrett Atkins
LF-Matt Holliday
CF-Willy Taveras
RF-Brad Hawpe
The Rockies return most of the line-up from their world series run. Jayson Nix seems to be front runner for the second base job. He's also the biggest hole in the line-up. They'll get above average or better production at SS and on the corners. They have some nice hitters and some holes. Overall they should clock in as an above average line-up.
Bullpen: The Rockies have Matt Corpas as closer, and several generally undistinguished set-up men.
Predicted Record: 87-75
San Diego Padres
Rotation: Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Greg Maddux, Randy Wolf, Justin Germano
Jake Peavy is co-front runner for the Cy Young in my mind, along with that guy in New York. Chris Young and Greg Maddux (despite his age) should be very respectable behind him. The back of the rotation has the question marks. The Padres are hoping that Mark Prior will get healthy mid-season and shore things up. Wolf could flame out or provide decent production, I think he'll struggle.
Line-up: C-Michael Barrett
1B-Adrian Gonzalez
2B-Tadahito Iguchi
SS-Khalil Greene
3B-Kevin Kouzmanoff
LF-Jody Gerut
CF-Jim Edmonds
RF-Brian Giles
Edmonds will miss the start of the season, leaving centerfield to Scott Hairston. Chase Headley is lurking at AAA if any of the outfielders struggle. Another option would be to trade Headley or Kouzmanoff for an outfielder. This line-up has no stars, but Greene and Gonzalez are both valuable players. There are also a lot of holes. Giles isn't very good anymore, ditto for Edmonds. Hairston, Gerut and Iguchi are journeymen.
Bullpen: San Diego has a knack for finding quality arms to back Trevor Hoffmann. The main suspects this year are Cla Meredith and Heath Bell. While Hoffmann isn't getting any younger he should still produce, and the bullpen should remain a strength.
Predicted Record: 80-82
San Francisco Giants
Rotation: Barry Zito, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Kevin Correia, Jonathan Sanchez
Noah Lowry should return in a few weeks and displace Sanchez. This rotation is the bright spot in San Francisco. Zito is still a good pitcher. Cain and Lincecum are the supposed foundation of the future. The problem with building on young pitchers is the injury rate. I think the odds of both of them living up to their potential are slim.
Line-up: C-Bengie Molina
1B-Dan Ortmeier
2B-Ray Durham
SS-Omar Vizquel
3B-Rich Aurilia
LF-Dave Roberts
CF-Aaron Rowand
RF-Randy Winn
Rowand will produce, the rest of the line-up won't.
Bullpen: The bullpen won't contribute much either.
Predicted Record: 63-99
Anyone could win this division save the Giants. It would take some luck for San Diego to win because of the holes in their line-up. Arizona, Colorado and Los Angeles are all legitimate though. I'm going with the Diamondbacks, but it's really a crap shoot here.
First Pitch
This blog is all about me. I occasionally have the urge to write about baseball, but I am in no way under the illusion that I have anything profound to add compared the innumerable high quality baseball blogs out there. I intend to post when I want, about what I want. Starting with a season preview this week.
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