NL West Preview

I have a very sophisticated projection system I use to predict the standings each year. It's called guessing.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Rotation: Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Randy Johnson, Doug Davis, Micah Owings
The biggest upgrade for Arizona this year was replacing Livan Hernandez with Dan Haren. With that addition, the Diamondbacks rotation can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the NL. Assuming Johnson does not go a full season, they have Edgar Gonzalez ready to throw some passable innings.

Line-up: C-Chris Snyder
1B-Conor Jackson
2B-Orlando Hudson
SS-Stephen Drew
3B-Mark Reynolds
LF-Eric Byrnes
CF-Chris Young
RF-Justin Upton
The Diamondbacks have put together a line-up with a lot of upside. They could be good if the young players like Jackson, Drew, Young and Upton put together good seasons. A more likely scenario is for them to be closer to average.

Bullpen: The Diamondbacks made some changes to their bullpen this offseason. They have installed Brandon Lyon at closer and have a good set-up corp in Tony Pena and Chad Qualls. If this group stays healthy, they'll be an asset.

Predicted Record: 88-74

Los Angeles Dodgers

Rotation: Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, Hideki Kuroda, Esteban Loaiza
The Dodgers also have Jason Schmidt who hopes to be healthy and contribute. I'm not betting on it. This rotation does not have the knock-out punch of Arizona, but it has few holes. The top four should be average or better this year, and Loaiza and Schmidt give them a solid chance to get decent production from the five spot.

Line-up: C-Russell Martin
1B-James Loney
2B-Jeff Kent
SS-Rafael Furcal
3B-Nomar Garciaparra/Andy LaRoche
LF-Juan Pierre/Matt Kemp
CF-Andruw Jones
RF-Matt Kemp/Andre Ethier
The Dodgers are battling injury problems this spring. Garciaparra and LaRoche are both hurt, leaving third base to, in all likelyhood, Tony Abreu. Kent also might miss some time at second, with Delwyn Young as a possible replacement. Neither of these will help the Dodgers offense. Martin will produce, and they will probably get bounce back performances from Jones and Furcal (I don't think he'll be great, but he'll bounce back some). If the youngsters on the corners produce, this line-up could be pretty good.

Bullpen: The big question here is if Takashi Saito can repeat his dominant performance as closer. He's old and the league could adjust to him. I don't know if I'm a believer. They have some pretty good set-up men in Jonathan Broxton and Scott Proctor.

Predicted Record: 87-75

Colorado Rockies

Rotation: Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez, Franklin Morales, Kip Wells
The rotation is led by Jeff Francis who can pitch with the best of them. Cook is a solid number two. The question marks are at the end of the rotation. Jimenez is young, and the Rockies hope he can build off of his debut. The Rockies are hoping to get solid production from the five spot, with Josh Towers ready to step in if Wells falters.

Line-up: C-Yorvit Torrealba
1B-Todd Helton
2B-Jayson Nix
SS-Troy Tulowitzki
3B-Garrett Atkins
LF-Matt Holliday
CF-Willy Taveras
RF-Brad Hawpe

The Rockies return most of the line-up from their world series run. Jayson Nix seems to be front runner for the second base job. He's also the biggest hole in the line-up. They'll get above average or better production at SS and on the corners. They have some nice hitters and some holes. Overall they should clock in as an above average line-up.

Bullpen: The Rockies have Matt Corpas as closer, and several generally undistinguished set-up men.

Predicted Record: 87-75

San Diego Padres

Rotation: Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Greg Maddux, Randy Wolf, Justin Germano
Jake Peavy is co-front runner for the Cy Young in my mind, along with that guy in New York. Chris Young and Greg Maddux (despite his age) should be very respectable behind him. The back of the rotation has the question marks. The Padres are hoping that Mark Prior will get healthy mid-season and shore things up. Wolf could flame out or provide decent production, I think he'll struggle.

Line-up: C-Michael Barrett
1B-Adrian Gonzalez
2B-Tadahito Iguchi
SS-Khalil Greene
3B-Kevin Kouzmanoff
LF-Jody Gerut
CF-Jim Edmonds
RF-Brian Giles
Edmonds will miss the start of the season, leaving centerfield to Scott Hairston. Chase Headley is lurking at AAA if any of the outfielders struggle. Another option would be to trade Headley or Kouzmanoff for an outfielder. This line-up has no stars, but Greene and Gonzalez are both valuable players. There are also a lot of holes. Giles isn't very good anymore, ditto for Edmonds. Hairston, Gerut and Iguchi are journeymen.

Bullpen: San Diego has a knack for finding quality arms to back Trevor Hoffmann. The main suspects this year are Cla Meredith and Heath Bell. While Hoffmann isn't getting any younger he should still produce, and the bullpen should remain a strength.

Predicted Record: 80-82

San Francisco Giants

Rotation: Barry Zito, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Kevin Correia, Jonathan Sanchez
Noah Lowry should return in a few weeks and displace Sanchez. This rotation is the bright spot in San Francisco. Zito is still a good pitcher. Cain and Lincecum are the supposed foundation of the future. The problem with building on young pitchers is the injury rate. I think the odds of both of them living up to their potential are slim.

Line-up: C-Bengie Molina
1B-Dan Ortmeier
2B-Ray Durham
SS-Omar Vizquel
3B-Rich Aurilia
LF-Dave Roberts
CF-Aaron Rowand
RF-Randy Winn
Rowand will produce, the rest of the line-up won't.

Bullpen: The bullpen won't contribute much either.

Predicted Record: 63-99


Anyone could win this division save the Giants. It would take some luck for San Diego to win because of the holes in their line-up. Arizona, Colorado and Los Angeles are all legitimate though. I'm going with the Diamondbacks, but it's really a crap shoot here.